Religious Views on Satan

Strict Views on Satan Free Online Research Papers In John Milton’s Satan shows a lot of authority all through the book. There are numerous things that Satan says and never really out of damnation and turns into a pioneer. Satan can convince numerous individuals to tail him. At the point when Satan says So he with trouble and work hard Movd on, with trouble and work hee; Be that as it may, hee once past, not long after when man fell, Abnormal adjustment! Sin and Death amain Following his track, such was the desire of. He expresses that he is proceeding onward and just escaped damnation and now clarifying paradise. Presently he is going to earth to seek retribution. Machiavelli shows this when he says He should subsequently keep his psyche prepared to move as he winds and tides of Fortune change, and as I have just stated, he should not to stop great courses in the event that he can support it, however should realize how to follow abhorrent courses in the event that he should Machiavelli is stating that you became acquainted with how to follow the great courses yet then additionally realize when to seek retribution and be underhanded. We sunk along these lines low? Th climb is easie at that point; Th occasion is feard; should we again incite Our more grounded, some more regrettable way his fury may discover To our demolition: if there be in Hell Dread to be more regrettable destroyd: what can be more awful. Satan is stating that they have fallen so far to hellfire and they as of now have bombed so what could happen that could be more awful. They ought to have nothing to fear on the off chance that they as of now have sunk to their absolute bottom. Machiavelli saysNevertheless he should be delayed to accept and to act, nor should he himself show dread, yet continue in a calm way with judiciousness and humankind, so a lot of certainty may not make him hasty and an excess of doubt render him excruciating. Machiavelli and Satan both are stating you ought not fear anything. Machiavelli is continually saying that its in every case preferable to be a pioneer over a supporter and when Satan says To reign is worth aspiration however in Hell: Better to reign in Hell, at that point serve in Heavn he is stating that it is smarter to reign in damnation than serve in paradise. This statement is like what Machiavelli is continually attempting to state. Machiavelli and Satan state a large number of things that are comparative and extraordinary. Generally they are attempting to state you ought to never be dreaded, realize that when generally will be abhorrent or acceptable, and its preferable to be a pioneer over an adherent. The two of them show great administration aptitudes from multiple points of view however can be contrasted with. Examination Papers on Religious Views on SatanHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows EssayMind TravelBringing Democracy to AfricaWhere Wild and West Meet19 Century Society: A Deeply Divided EraThe Effects of Illegal ImmigrationHip-Hop is ArtThe Hockey GameStandardized TestingTwilight of the UAW

Film Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Film - Essay Example On an equipped investigation around the settlement, John Smith was caught by the locals and brought to the pioneer where he was condemned to kick the bucket. The chief’s little girl saved John Smith’s life on chief’s order that he would live with them. This is the best approach to watch him to know the arrangement of the state. The boss additionally requested that he order the settlement to leave in the spring. At the point when they didn't leave, the locals assaulted the settlement. The story introduced a perspective on the occasions that happened during when the United States is in the beginning period of colonization by the English individuals. This is huge in deciding the various issues that happened during that time. One is the distinctions in culture. The English individuals have the primary target of colonizing the land because of their need to discover a spot where they can have a fresh start, a less difficult and less confounded life. Along these lines, even at the outset at that point, they have the intention of remaining in the land. Then again, the locals who are guiltless in nature and without feeling of possession and jealousy invited the English individuals on the reason that they would leave after some timeframe. In any case, when it didn't occur, the contention happened. The story is generally huge on the premise that it introduced it demonstrated the situation in a land that is colonized.

Most Effective Ways of How to Calculate Effective Interest Rate

Most Effective Ways of How to Calculate Effective Interest Rate The effective annual interest rate is the interest rate that, because of compounding over a specific time period, is effectively received or paid out on a loan, credit, or other financial product. The nominal interest rate, the annual equivalent, or the effective rate, are similarly defined. Here is the most effective way of how to calculate effective interest rate. Uses of Effective Interest Rate Summary Uses of Effective Interest RateExampleAdditional FactorsAdditional feesAltered amount lentPurposeBenefits of Effective Interest RatesMethod of the Effective Interest Rate The interest is the borrowers utilization rate for loans. It can also take into account the market interest rate or the return to maturity. The rate might differ from the rate indicated in the document of loan, which was determined established on analyses of a number of factors. The following are: The actual amount of interest chargedThe amount paid by the lender to the loan is compounded throughout the year The steps that are obligatory to analyze the effective rate are: find the documents of loan for the compounding period when the effect of compounding only applies to the interest rate. It may be weekly, monthly, or yearly. In the loan documents, locate the specified interest rate. Insert into the actual formula of interest rate the compounding time and specified interest rate; that is: r = (1 + i/n) ^n-1 Wherever: The effective interest rate = r The stated interest rate = i Compounding periods for each year = n Example A loan document has a specified 10% interest rate as well as a four times a year compounding mandate. When incorporating this info into the formula of effective interest rate, we approach the “effective rate (1 + 10%/4): ^4-1= 10.38%. Additional Factors Additional fees The borrower may compensate for the additional fees incurred by interest payments. Such payments are worth collectively if they are content in the estimate. Altered amount lent If the investment does not agree to an interest rate equal to the interest rate of the debtor. The lender shall bid less than or in excess of the face sum of the borrower. The creator, therefore, pays less for the loan, which means that the market interest rate is greater than the face value of the debt instrument, the results in a more productive return. By contrast, if the market interest rate is under that of the debt instrument. The borrower is ready to wage extra for the loan. A thorough, effective interest rate analysis might be very helpful for a borrower who can recognize the need to prevent any potential borrowing arrangement. The definition is also useful for comparing various alternative methods for loans and borrowing, which include different interest rate calculations. Purpose It is a significant concept in economics for the reason that it is utilized to equate distinct products together with lines of credits, loans. Benefits of Effective Interest Rates The main advantage of using the effective rate calculation is clearly that the real interest in financial investment. And the instrument is a more accurate figure or the actual interest paid on loan, e.g., a home mortgage. Method of the Effective Interest Rate An effective interest method is a preferred way of amortizing (or gradual cancelling of) a discounted bond. The amount of interest expenditure in an assumed accounting period is linked with a bond book value. At the start of the accounting period below the method of the effective interest rate. Therefore, the amount of interest spending upsurges as the book value of a bond upsurge. As soon as a discounted bond is issued, it must pay the amount of the discount to interest charges for the bonds life.The debit balance in the discount on bonds allocated is transferred to the interest account once using the efficient interest process.The amortization will, therefore, result in interest spending in each period that exceeds the amount of interest paid every single year of the life of the bond.A number of types of interest rates, together with nominal, real, annual, and efficient, are well-known through factors of key economic that be able to make people smarter.In general, real rates are above nominal rights when the inflation rates are negative (deflationary). However, the contrary is true for positive inflation rates. The actual cost of taking a loan in Singapore is the EIR. It is because the loan rate is not the only factor. Often there are other expenses as well, such as the expense of compliance paid by a bank. The effective interest rate is the equivalent annual interest rate that is annually compounded. Moreover, more than once a year, the compounding must take place. Get the best accounting assignment help from our experts.

Overview of Dementia Essay - 988 Words

Introduction Margaret is a 77 year old who has a diagnosis of dementia and type 2 diabetes mellitus. She has been recently separated from her daughter who was her primary carer and her husband who were both unable to cope with her agitated behaviour. Margaret now resides in an age care facility. Margaret’s mental and emotional health is a cause for concern and the family are upset and are struggling with feelings of guilt and anger. This paper with discuss the intervention professional healthcare workers can implement to reduce the turbulence of this transitional period for all individuals involved. The reassuring of the family will firstly be discussed as will the interventions used to reduce agitation and unsafe wandering. A description†¦show more content†¦The rationale behind such care plans have been described in recent studies that show a great similarity among marital pairs for known predictors of well-being (Schulz Martire, 2004). This indicates that the influence of the patient may spill over to the care providers, and vice versa. Either initiates a downward spiral that impairs the quality of life, or uplifts the individuals, depending on the stimulus received (Schulz Martire, 2004). This finding proposes clinical interventions that concurrently treat both the care recipient and the carers are likely to achieve the largest effects (Schulz Martire, 2004). With this understanding, it is reasonable to suggest that if Margaret is happy and has a sense of belonging in her new environment that her family will also be at ease. Important aspects of contentment are stability, harmony, protection, joy, privacy, fellowship, power, recognition, ownership, order, control, nourishment, self motivation, recognition, and freedom (Norberg, 2001). To obtain this quality of life Margaret needs to have concentrated support in three areas. Firstly, Margaret needs physical consolation, studies have showed that rocking, music, and touch had a calming effect on people w ith severe dementia (Norberg, 2001). Secondly, psychological consolation is also needed as communion is established when the sufferer is allowed to express his or her feelings such as sorrow, anger, hatred, mediated by a listener who doesShow MoreRelatedEssay Overview of Dementia1381 Words   |  6 PagesDementia is a syndrome, which is usually of a chronic or progressive nature, which causes deterioration in cognitive function. It goes beyond what is expected from normal aging. It causes changes in what you remember, like appointments, or phone numbers. It may cause you to get lost in a familiar setting like driving to the grocery store. You may not be able to balance your checkbook or add up your points in a card game. Communication becomes difficult; as you cannot find the words you want toRead MoreAn Overview of Alzheimers Disease and Dementia Essay1938 Words   |  8 PagesDisease Dementia Intro/Overview Section of Disease Paper â€Å"Horribly tragic, scary, slow, sad, maddening, etc.† These are words some would use when asked what Alzheimer’s/dementia is. This answer is common to those who have watched loved ones suffer from this disease that ultimately lead to their passing. As defined in McGraw Hill Medical Dictionary, Alzheimer’s Disease is a ‘progressive neurologic disease of the brain that causes irreversible loss of neurons and eventual dementia characterizedRead MoreDevelopment And Evaluation Of Cognition Based Interventions1531 Words   |  7 Pages PhD upgrade overview In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the development and evaluation of cognition-based interventions (CBIs) for people with dementia in improving cognition, and quality of life (QoL). However, little is known about the effects of these interventions for carers who are actively involved and participate in CBIs alongside their relative. In addition, it has been argued that engaging family carers in the therapeutic process is important as it has the potentialRead MoreHealth Care and Stage Dementia Support Essay example1302 Words   |  6 Pagesassignment, I researched about the health problem, dementia. Dementia is one of the serious health problems Australia encounters. This is due to the fact that the aging of population in Australia is increasing. Thus, the number of people who are diagnosed as dementia is increasing every year. Brown Edwards (2005) suggested that there are approximately 18,000 new cases of dementia in Australia every year. Harris, Nagy and Vardax is (2006) stated  ¡Ã‚ ®dementia is a progressive organic mental disorder characterisedRead MoreEarly Onset Of Alzheimer s Disease1742 Words   |  7 PagesEaten Alive Dementia is the general term for a decline in mental ability severe enough to interfere with daily life. The most common form of dementia is Alzheimer s. Alzheimer s disease literally eats and attacks the human brain (Overview). It is a progressive disease that causes the brain cells to degenerate and die, which causes memory loss and affects other important mental functions (Mayo). Today in America, over five million Americans are living with Alzheimer s disease and someone developsRead MoreLate Stage Dementia and Nutrition785 Words   |  3 PagesLate stage Dementia and Nutrition What is dementia? Dementia a neurologic condition characterized by the following cognitive defects; impaired memory, disturbed intellectual function, and inability to solve a problem (deWit O’Neill 2014). Dementia occurs in different stages in this paper we are going to be discussing late stage dementia, and the end stage. The effect that dementia has on a person’s nutritional status. Why is the dementia patient more at risk for malnutrition? Things we as healthRead MoreThe Stages and Treatments of Alzheimer’s Disease Essay925 Words   |  4 Pagesdo not know exactly what causes Alzheimer’s, but scientists say the disease develops a complex series of events that take place in the brain over a long period of time (3). Alzheimer’s is known to cause dementia with older people. Dementia is the loss of thinking, remembering, and reasoning. Dementia affects daily life and activities just like Alzheimer’s (â€Å"Alzheimer’s Disease Fact S heet†1). Alzheimer’s is not a normal part of aging, and is not hereditary (Hyde 57). There are three different casesRead More Dementia and Alzheimers Disease Essay examples638 Words   |  3 PagesDementia and Alzheimers During an average lifetime, one can expect to have at least occasional memory lapses from time to time. Usually its something as simple as forgetting what you just did a few minutes ago, forgetting if you turned the stove off, or if you left your keys on the table or in the bathroom counter. Such lapses are relatively normal, but when they become a recurring theme, its a more serious problem. As people age, it is natural for them to experience a mild degree of memoryRead MoreIs Parkinson Disease A Disease?1290 Words   |  6 Pagesit will progressively get worse (Parkinson’s: Overview April 6, 2015). However, it still has not yet shown to be fatal. (National Parkinson Foundation 2015). Diagnosis Doctors who diagnose Parkinson start by performing a physical examination on the patient followed by a detailed discussion of the symptoms and past medical history. During the physical exam the doctor test their reflexes, sensitivity to pain or pressure and agility.(Parkinson: Overview Diagnosis April 6, 2015). If the patient showsRead MoreA Research On Dementia Caregivers853 Words   |  4 PagesSummary: The authors argued this study is an innovation research about dementia caregivers, because researchers collect their data from rural area dementia caregivers who have been long been forgotten, and all those pervious studies are only focusing on service-utilizing population who is affluent white people living at urban, furthermore, pervious findings are fail to address the geographic backgrounds of study participants. And in this cross-sectional research study, authors reach their participants

Drugs Are A Very Controversial Topic Containing Many Grey

Drugs are a very controversial topic containing many grey areas. Some may argue that all drugs should be illegal, but does this also include prescription drugs given to one by their doctor. Others may say that drugs like anti-depressants are an acceptable addiction, however, drugs such as heroine are not. There are others that advocate for all drugs to be legal so that it can become a safe and regulated process, but questions arise on whether that would help or hurt the drug users and the community surrounding them. A drug addiction can happen to anyone, whether it be needing to take a medication daily for psychological reasons or happening to be at the wrong place at the wrong time and folding under pressure. Society begins to dictate†¦show more content†¦We should focus more on offering help to those currently dealing with a drug addiction, and try to present more knowledge about the effects of drugs. Knowledge can be a powerful thing, by having school inform students abou t the negative effects from smoking, it has â€Å"been shown to improve adolescents’ smoking knowledge and attitude, and reduce smoking intention and behaviors† (Tahlil 2013 p.2). If this is the case for smoking, it is most likely also the case for more serious drugs as well, however, many schools tend to not talk about the effects of harder drugs due to either lack of education themselves or just not talking about it assuming they will never try it. Education for future generations, and care for those who are currently suffering from addiction can help the world achieve less drug use and lower the problems that come with that use. Drug legality is a conversation still being argued, and we may never reach an agreement because this is peoples lives we are altering either way. Individuals on both sides of the argument probably think their ideas are what are best for people, however, when a majority of drug users themselves do not want drugs such as heroine or methampheta mine, that should tell non-users something of grave importance (Trevino 2002 p.101). If the individuals using these drugs are not wanting their legalization, they must have a reason. It would be aShow MoreRelatedBackground Inditex, One of the Worlds Largest Fashion Distributors, Has Eight Major Sales Formats - Zara, Pull and Bear, Massimo Dutti, Bershka, Stradivarius, Oysho, Zara Home Y Kiddys Class- with 3.147 Stores in 70100262 Words   |  402 Pagesyou have taught me during these years. Thank you also to Hà ¥kan Rodhe, my second supervisor, who has not only provided valuable input related to my research and writing, but who has also been a rich source of advice and inspiration when it comes to many other aspects in life ranging from teaching to parenting. Thank you Hà ¥kan; for your support and for always having a good perspective on what is important in life. A large part of my research was carried out within the realm of the FLIPP research programmeRead MoreCase Study148348 Words   |  594 Pagesteaching plans †¢ PowerPoint slides, containing key information and figures from the book †¢ Secure testbank containing over 600 questions †¢ Support for the Strategy Experience simulation with guidance on the aims and objectives of the simulation, and instructions on how to set up simulation groups that enable you to monitor your student’s performance Also: the following instructor resources are available off-line: †¢ Instructor’s manual in hard copy, with CD containing PowerPoint slides and classic casesRead More_x000C_Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis355457 Words   |  1422 Pages and the ordering of topics in the ï ¬ rst ten chapters of the book mirrors this process: data collection, then data description, then statistical inference. The logical order in the data analysis process can be pictured as shown in the following ï ¬ gure. Step 1: Acknowledging Variability— Collecting Data Sensibly Step 2: Describing Variability in the Data— Descriptive Statistics Step 3: Drawing Conclusions in a Way That Recognizes Variability in the Data Unlike many introductory texts, IntroductionRead MoreProject Mgmt296381 Words   |  1186 PagesCross Reference of Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) Concepts to Text Topics Chapter 1 Modern Project Management Chapter 8 Scheduling resources and cost 1.2 Project defined 1.3 Project management defined 1.4 Projects and programs (.2) 2.1 The project life cycle (.2.3) App. G.1 The project manager App. G.7 Political and social environments F.1 Integration of project management processes [3.1] 6.5.2 Setting a schedule baseline [8.1.4] 6.5.3.1 Setting a resource schedule 6.5.2.4 ResourceRead MoreMarketing Management130471 Words   |  522 PagesMarketing has evolved into a very important functional area in management basically due to the increasing supply and lower demand over the years. This is primarily through the competitive intensity in every sphere of the market. When competition increases, as you know, every firm wants to be heard in the market. This will make the firms to be different than the competitors. Hence marketing becomes a very important functional area for every firm where the competition is very high. In a business firmRead MoreOne Significant Change That Has Occurred in the World Between 1900 and 2005. Explain the Impact This Change Has Made on Our Lives and Why It Is an Important Change.163893 Words   |  656 PagesTransitions †¢ Richard P. Tucker 315 About the Contributors †¢ 343 _ IN TR OD UC TIO N Michael Adas B y any of the customary measures we deploy to demarcate historical epochs, the twentieth century does not appear to be a very coherent unit. The beginnings and ends of what we choose to call centuries are almost invariably years of little significance. But there is little agreement over when the twentieth century c.e. arrived, and there were several points both beforeRead MoreOcd - Symptoms, Causes, Treatment131367 Words   |  526 PagesCarr (1974), McFall and Wollersheim (1979), Rachman and Hodgson (1980), and Salkovskis (1985). Behavior therapy in the form of exposure and response prevention (ERP), which emerged in the 1960s and 1970s, proved to be a highly effective treatment for many forms of OCD. Behavioral research on obsessions and compulsions offered new insights into the pathogenesis of the disorder. Yet, by the early 1980s, behavioral research into OCD had stagnated. The â€Å"cognitive revolution† that led to advances in the

The American Reaction to Involvement in Vietnam Essay

The American Reaction to Involvement in Vietnam In the early 60s, most Americans were very ignorant about Vietnam. They just saw it as a little concern. They were an extremely confident nation who had never lost a war to date, and whose resources were limitless. So they naturally assumed that all their weapons and firepower would ensure victory in a couple of months. Patriotism was very strong in America at that time. Many people remembered the McCarthy trials of the 1950s, so people were extremely aware of the anti-Communist feelings in the country in the early 1960s.Most Americans believed the Domino Theory during these years, and so most were in favour of military involvement. So part of the†¦show more content†¦But, young people were playing an increasingly more important part in public opinion on the war at that tmie. Youth culture came to the forefront during the 60s. It had already begun to take hold during the 1950s, with figures such as Elvis Presley capturing the heart of teenagers across the country. This wa s because the wealth of America had lead to young people having more money to spend on music and fashion, and so they had more say in the country. Thye had more liberal attitudes and were concerned with freedom of speech and self-expression. During this young people threw time traditional values out of the window and it was a period of huge social change in all areas of society. For example it was the time of womens liberation and the sexual revolution with the introduction of contraception such as the pill. This was all part of young peoples struggle against authority, and so as you can imagine, the idea of a war was not going to go down too well. Part of young peoples negative attitude to the war was connected with the desire to rebel against their parents ideas and values. One thing that made Vietnam unpopular with young people was conscription, which came in at this time. Boys would receive their draft cards on their 18th birthdays. Children of the rich were sometimes able to do dge the draft by being sent abroad, but on the whole, this madeShow MoreRelatedMedia and American Withdrawal From Vietnam Essay1745 Words   |  7 PagesMedia and American Withdrawal From Vietnam The history of Vietnam is characterised by struggles for independence since French rule in 1859 after the French took Saigon, and a great ability in warfare and continual determined resistance to foreign domination. Major military involvement by American armed forces came after events such as Russian communist revolution in 1917 and the Korean War in the 1950s; these events put the America people in a period of moral panic Read MorePresident Lyndon. B Johnson and the Vietnam War Essay1379 Words   |  6 Pages The conflict in Vietnam for the United States started when President Dwight D. Eisenhower went along with the domino theory and sent in military advisors in South Vietnam to stop the communist movement from taking place in South Vietnam. The Vietnam conflict was between the communist’s and the United States. North Vietnam was led by Ho Chi Minh, and Ho Chi Minh led the Viet Cong, a guerilla group to help spread communism. The United States were supporters of the South Vietnam because they wantedRead MoreThe Vietnam War : We Can Not Understand War Without Understanding Culture1267 Words   |  6 PagesThe Vietnam War â€Å"We cannot understand war without understanding culture† â€Å"Involvement in two world wars and the Cold War transformed America into a â€Å"crusader state† convinced of the superiority of its institutions and way of life and intent on imposing them on the outside world. † Whether fought at home or abroad every war is to impact all parties involved. Such example of staggering influence on one country’s culture is no more evident then in America’s involvement in the Vietnam War. Upon enteringRead MoreThe War Of The Vietnam War1155 Words   |  5 Pages The Vietnam War was one of the first wars to be broadcasted in one’s own living room. It is also one of the most misconstrued and misunderstood wars that have resulted in American defeat. Being one of the longest wars fought in history, it has left many questioning the motivation behind the conflict that spanned two decades before being resolved. Despite being a conflict between North and South Vietnam, the United States decided to enter the war in spite of being faced with opposition from its citizensRead MoreUnited States Involvement in South Vietnam1676 Words   |  7 PagesUnited States Involvement in South Vietnam It is apparent from source A that America was involved in Vietnam to maintain capitalism and to suppress communism. The writer of the source, John F Kennedy, had a high position in the US government and he makes the point that the Americans did not like communism and wanted to stop it spreading. If the red tide of communism overflowed into Vietnam, then Burma, Thailandà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦and Cambodia would be threatened. This shows theRead MoreThe Vietnam War and Its Effects on Society During the 1960s1594 Words   |  7 Pagesfelt though out the counting during the middle of the decade. The infamous Vietnam War and the new alternative culture were pushing the United States towards a time of liberalism and a nationwide rebellion against the social norms. The first combat forces were sent to Da Nang in 1965, by a formally anti war President, Lyndon B Johnson. The question of why the United States was engaging in a war between North and South Vietnam was raised. Anti war rebellions sprouted up all across the country, allRead MoreThe United States Involvement In The War In Vietnam Essay examples1731 Words   |  7 PagesThe United States Involvement In The War In Vietnam There were many reasons why the US became increasingly involved in the Vietnam War, and when all linked together they explain why. In this essay I will explain all aspects of why the US got involved and then I will summarise all the points at the end. Since the 1880’s, France had controlled an area of eastern Asia called Indo-China, which consisted of Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam. In 1940, France was at war withRead MoreThe Vietnam War Changed America1139 Words   |  5 Pages The Vietnam War greatly changed America forever. It was the longest war fought in America’s History, lasting from 1955 to 1973. The Vietnam War tarnished America s self image by becoming the first time in history the United States failed to accomplish its stated war aims, to preserve a separate, independent, noncommunist government. The war also had great effects on the American people. It was the first war ever broadcast on television. The public was able to see what happened on the battlefieldRead MoreThe Vietnam War1737 Words   |  7 PagesThe purpose of the Vietnam War, was to end the awful spread of communism. As Ho Chi Minh (North Vietnam’s communist president) fought to which spread North Vietnam’s political uses to Southern Vietnam. With this, the American Military Advisors sought to believe that a fall of Southern Vietnam to communist hands, would then lead to a total takeover of neighboring nations to fall under communism. The effect of the neighboring nations falling, was known as the â€Å"Domino Effect†. It all began when TheRead MoreVietnam And The Vietnam War848 Words   |  4 Pageseverything. The Vietnam War changed a lot of people all around the world. The Vietnam War was between North Vietnam and South Vietnam. The Vietnam War was a very bloody and violent war. The war was a long and costly-armed conflict. This war changed Vietnam and its citizens forever. During the Vietnam War, North Vietnam and South Vietnam both had received help from other countries. South Vietnam worked with the United States, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, and New Zealand. North Vietnam worked with

Hopeless Fountain Kingdom by Halsey free essay sample

The sophomore album from this New Jersey born artist, what nothing less than what was expected of this Grammy nominated artist. Halsey’s first album, Badlands, was a relatable collection filled with emotional outcrys and teenage angst. Her ability to tell stories through her songs is what sets this 23 year old artist apart from other pop stars. Many of the songs on her newest album cover everything to lost relationships, grievances, and the consequences of fame. The singer shows her especially impressive pipes when she croons how shes â€Å"Bad at love†, on her second single, â€Å"Bad at Love†.Despite the majority of her songs being written by her, she includes collabs with artists like Quavo, Lauren Jauregui, and popular norwegian DJ Cashmere Cat. The artists continues to break boundaries with her music, especially on songs like ‘Strangers†, which features Fifth Harmony member, Lauren Jauregui, and includes specifically female pronouns. The â€Å"C loser† singer manages to create the same angsty, upbeat feeling on her second album with songs like â€Å"Angel on Fire† and â€Å"Alone†. We will write a custom essay sample on Hopeless Fountain Kingdom by Halsey or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Her emotionally fueled voice, is evident on â€Å"Angel on fire† and â€Å"sorry†, where she sings of internal struggles and the insecurities of love, where she sings â€Å"I’m fading away, you know I used to be one fire†. This musically diverse singer shines on her latest album, Hopeless Fountain Kingdom, which debuted at number one on the Billboard 200 chart. Her album does nothing but shine and set the stage for an already anticipated 3rd album, which has yet to be announced.

How to Break Up with Your Boyfriend free essay sample

Virtually, everyone has broken up with a boyfriend at some point in time. Breaking up can be a composed understanding or sudden and traumatic. Recognition is a crucial stage. Before anything else, give a thought to why you are in light of breaking up with your boyfriend. Subsequently, make it clear why you are wanting to split up at the same time as why its in both interest of the couple. Having said that, some couples try to mend things occasionally, whereas the only answer is to break up.The first stage to ending a relationship is giving thought for what reason you are considering breaking up with your boyfriend, and knowing the relationship isnt going anywhere. Make certain you are not breaking up in virtue of something misconceived, something that can be straightened out with a conversation. Do your best to express the reasoning uniting his bad side and good side, substantiate each side with a significant mistake. We will write a custom essay sample on How to Break Up with Your Boyfriend or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page The reasoning will help you to make a decision to end the legislation with him.The second stage is the actual break up. You can let him know In numerous of ways. Regardless that countless people break up with a text message, Faceable message, or even tweet. Which can be interpreted as brutal and spineless. Taking into account the subject matter can be unpleasant, breaking up In person would be the respectable thing to do. Tell him calmly and tranquilly, at one point In time you cared for him tremendously, even so, now It Is time for you to better yourself.By this time, you can sugar coat It but refrain from using expressions that leave an open door for hope to get back together. Either you want to break up or you dont. An option Is to make plans with your friend Sally and If the break up process takes longer than anticipated you can as a last resort say Im suppose to meet Sally In 15 minutes. Unfortunately, breaking up to end problems In a relationship can result to more problems.

Unemployment Essay

Unemployment Essay Free Online Research Papers Each society has some factors that hinder its improvement. Unemployment is one of them that can prevent a society to be perfect or somehow a utopia. Unemployment can cause two major negative effects on society, which are poverty and crime. These two factors can make fundamental problems for society. When unemployment is widespread in a society, there would be no money gained, so the people of that society would be poor and poorer. Not only they get poor, but also they will face some other difficulties. For example, an unemployed, married man cannot afford his family expenses, so that would be the beginning of a depression, quarrel, and other disorders in the family. Poverty gives them a feeling of being inferior to others, so they will lose their self-esteem, which is more dangerous than the hunger they tolerate. The unemployed person will come to the conclusion that he is a nonentity in the world! This poverty itself is a cause itself; it can cause people to commit a crime. Crime is sometimes is done because or the poorness of a person who wants something which he cannot afford. When the pocket is empty and living in a megapolis is costly, those who are not virtuous resort to a way of gaining money, which is not righteous, such as stealing others’ possessions, murdering others for being paid, or even having a hostage in order to have ransom. Some others start smuggling gas, drugs, or other things which are illegal in a country. Poverty and crime are considered as major effects of unemployment in society. We can regard it as a very beginning cause of disorders in a society in different forms. It can make the unemployment of a society depressed, having a lack of self-esteem, and useless. Malnutrition, divorce, crime are other effects of this devilish phenomenon which is called unemployment. Research Papers on Unemployment EssayHas the British Welfare System beenThe Broken FamilyCauses of the 2008 Financial CrisisPoverty, Violence and Conflict How are they Related?Jim Crow Law EssayBiological, Strain, Radical Theory EssayThe Obama Presidency EssaySociology EssayThe Colour PurplePlastic Surgery Essay

Business and Sustainability Adidas Company Research Paper

Business and Sustainability Adidas Company - Research Paper Example Companies that record huge profit levels take up CSR as a way of giving back to the society. Such companies set aside funds to cater for the recommended corporate social responsibility activities. The paper will analyze the CSR activities implemented by Adidas Group of Company. Additionally, the paper will evaluate the impact of the CSR activities and the community perception of the implemented activities. CSR activities by Adidas With numerous years in the market, Adidas has been able to gather a significant market support and demand for its products. This has transformed the organization to a multi-millionaire company and one the one of the leading enterprises in the supply of sport kits and merchandise. Similar to its large profit recording, the organization has invested a lot in CSR activities. The activities go beyond participation in local community activities and charity events. The organization has also invested in global community give back projects (Smit 102). The CSR activ ities include: I. Group initiatives In this initiative the organization seeks to support projects that support the activities in the local context of their supplier’s communities (Adidas Group 49). Additionally, this category of programs involves using employees to participate in community activities that surround the organization’s environment. ... The other group initiative project is the infrastructure and education program in Sudhaar, Pakistan (Adidas Group 48). II. Employee involvement projects This category is involved in organizing charitable events involving staff members. In most cases the events involve are fun activities. One major event under this category was the Kids Sports Fun Day in Germany (Adidas Group 49). The main aim of this activity was to involve the unfortunate children in this particular society in a fun having activity. Additionally, the event involved also disabled children as the company found way of incorporating them into the fun activity. Environment sustainability projects by Adidas Apart from the social responsibility efforts, Adidas has indulged in environmental activities that around the globe. Environmental sustainability projects refer to projects that are used to increase the level at which environments are comfortable to hold human life. These activities are used by Adidas to create a stron g market position and also as a community appreciation strategy. The environmental sustainability projects may be planned or they may be immediate events that have occurred and need support from corporate. In words by Smit sustainability projects are also used by organizations to create comfortable environments from which they operate (87). For example, it is difficult to trade in areas with famine and drought. In this case, an organization may drill boreholes or come up with efficient transport services for the provision of water. One of the most significant indulgences of sustainability projects by Adidas is in the United States in case of hurricanes. The organization helps rebuild

Films Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words - 2

Films - Essay Example The technology in the production was more of building sets-up, which was more expensive than location shooting. For movies to attract any investor they need have new story telling techniques strong story line, plot, and assurance of investment return (Dirks 1). The economic situation was another reason. During recession, Hollywood studios like MGM studios abandoned their core business and ventured into other area to generate income. Some of the storyline were based on true-life events like Vietnam War that occurred once, although over a long period time (Dirks 1). All this factors made one single production to be very expensive and therefore not worth having sequel. Waterfront is an American crime drama film, which was directed by Elia kazan. The film received many awards, which included best picture, best actor, and best director. The film was shot in white and black. This film was based on a series on true story of occurrence at the waterfront of Manhattan and Brooklyn. It exposes the bigger picture of corruption, extortion, and racketeering. Therefore, the basic concept was borrowed from a real life event that had taken place (waterfront commission). A third party that had sued because he claims the story had been stolen from him making it end in court

The Perception Of Nepal By Tourists Tourism Essay

The Perception Of Nepal By Tourists Tourism Essay Bounded by the lofty heights of the Himalayas, Nepal is a country of eternal beauty and attraction. It is a land of interesting cultures, ancient history and indigenous people, picturesque scenery and some of the greatest walking on earth. It is universally known for the highest mountain peak of the world, Mount Everest that stands tall at 8848 meters. Nepal tourism notifies about places to visit in Nepal, Lumbini; famous for the birthplace of Gautam Buddha who laid the foundation of Buddhism in the country. Having rich traditions of art, historical sites, customs, culture and heritage, Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal is a treasure house of ancient art and culture. Different article, Books, international publication and organization has mentioned that, Nepal is one of the most visited travel destination in South Asia. A report published by Lonely Planet names top ten destinations for 2010, Nepal is one the best destination including El Salvador, Germany, Greece, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Portugal, Suriname and USA  [1]  . Similarly, Magazine Current Issue December 2009/ January 2010 published by BBC, National Geography, had searched 200 top-rated travel destinations of the world and selected the best 25 destinations for 2010. Nepal is one of the best destinations out of 25  [2]  . Reactions of residents concerning tourism Figure 3 shows a matrix representing the attitudes and behaviour of local residents of the region to tourism. The matrix is based on the framework developed by Bjorklund and Philbrick (1972) and applied to tourism (tourist-host relationship) by Butler (1980)  [3]  . The two dimensions of analysis are the attitudes of local residents towards tourism (positive negative) and their behavioural responses (active passive). Attitudes and reactions of individuals change in time, according to the process of tourism development in an area. Host Attitudinal/Behavioural Responses to Tourist Activities in the Region (% of the Population) Active Passive Positive 57.7 17.4 Negative 4.5 13.6 In the Khumbu, Pokhara (including Annapurna), Chitwan and Lumbini regions, the majority of residents (57%) actively support and promote tourist activities and tourism development in the region (mainly by running their own tourist businesses, but also by other means, e.g. learning languages in order to be able to communicate with tourists, or trekking with tourist in trekking routes). Besides, only 5% of them oppose actively further tourism development in the region (mainly for environmental reasons). The remaining 6.8% of the population have neither positive nor negative attitude toward tourism development. 10.1.1. Tourists and Motivations A tourist is a person who travels for various activities form origin to destination with some period. The movement could be inside the country or outside. Similarly, the people who travel and stay in places outside their usual environment for not more than consecutive year for leisure, business and other purposes not related to the exercise of an activities remunerated from within the place visited  [4]  http://www.traveletour.com/. Why do tourists visit certain places? By overlooking in academic approach given by Dann (1981)  [5]  , listed seven elements: Travel is a response to what is lacking yet desired. Destination pull, in response to motivation push Motivation as fantasy- behavior not culturally sanctioned at home Motivation typologies: a) behavioural, such as sun worshipping or wanderlust and, b) typologies focusing on dimensions of the tourist role Motivation as classified purposes Motivation and tourist experiences-includes the authenticity debate Motivation as auto-definition and meaning Similarly, McIntosh et al., 1995, utilize four categories of motivations, physical, cultural, interpersonal and status and prestige motivators. In the case of Nepal, generally all international visitors are clubbed under the category of tourists. However, these visitors-cum-tourists visit the country for various purposes ranging from pilgrimage to purely official purposes. All of them spend money while they are in Nepal; they are contributing to this Himalayan economy. Therefore, such range of visitors might be put under the category of tourists. Nepal government has classified the categories of tourists according to activities, like pleasure, trekking, mountaineering, adventure and cultural activities, natural or eco-tourism activates business, education, health etc. (Agrawal, 2005, Tourism and economic development in Nepal). Nepal is best destination for pleasure trip and adventure activities as well as natural and cultural tourism. It is followed by trekking and mountaineering. The two together accounted for around 90 Per Cent of the total tourists arrival before the nineties. Since, 1990 the average share has been around 80 Per Cent of the total. It is clear from the above data the major purposes of tourists in Nepal are pleasure, trekking, mountaineering and adventure activities before 1990. After that, new types of tourists also found in Nepal like cultural tourists (Pilgrimages), study and research, meetings and seminar, and health, since 1991 have shown growth rate of these types of tourist 8.22 and 9.12 per Cent of respectively. By the year of 2007 and 2008, largest number of tourists 41.4% tourists were visited for adventure activities and average length of stay in the country was recorded 12 days.(Source; calculated from several issues of economic survey, Ministry of finance, HMG/N) On the basis on empirical data, the motivations of tourists were different according to the study areas. Tourists in the mountainous region like Khumbu and Annapurna are interested on adventure activities. Similarly, tourists in Lumbini, Janakpur and Kathmandu valley are interested on cultural pilgrimages. Again, tourists in Chitwan are interested on natural activities. However, majority of tourists agree on, adventure activities. Trekking is the gift of Nepal to the world in adventure tourism. To be one with nature, to regenerate ones own self-esteem, to rediscover oneself, to appreciate Nepals beauty, to interact with its hospitable and friendly people are some of the highlights of trekking in Nepal. Trekking is one long-term activity that draws repeat visitors to the country. Possessing eight of the ten highest mountains in the world, Nepal is hotspot destination for mountaineers, rock climbers and people seeking adventure. Therefore, Nepal is the ultimate destinations for the trekking enthusiast. So these are the characteristics of Nepalese tourism, to attract us again and again. A German couple, who has visited Nepal more than seven times in Khumbu region. Well, Nepal is excellent destination for natural tourism, having highest mountain, varieties of biodiversity, and unique geographic structures are the major attraction for us. A group of tourist from USA in Chitwan Nepal has many unique cities for tourists like Kathmandu and Pokhara. Kathmandu valley is one of the oldest city with full of religious and cultural heritages, city of living God and Goddess and capital city of Nepal with full range of historic and artistic achievement. Therefore, Kathmandu Valley is world famous. The seven touristic areas (listed in world heritages by UNESCO), the Durbar Squares of Hanuman Dhoka (Kathmandu), Patan and Bhaktapur, the Buddhist stupas of Swayambhu and Bauddhanath and the Hindu temples of Pashupatinath and Changu Narayan. The Kathmandu is an exotic and fascinating showcase of a very rich culture, art and tradition. Again I am very much interested to know the Hindu and Buddhist society and culture; therefore I travel to Nepal frequently. A tourist nearby Kathmandu Durbar Square When I was in school, I read a book; Nepal is only one Hindu kingdom in the world, only one Hindu kingdom (no more now) For me it was interesting because I know many Christian and Muslim countries but not only one Hindu kingdom, so I have desire to visit Nepal form school level, and finally I am here now. A French tourist in Pashupatinath, Kathmandu Nepal is holy land for us, because this is the land, where Lord Buddha was born. We are happy to visit Nepal, especially Lumbini (the birth place of God Buddha). Around 60 tourists (in-group) from Sri Lanka in Lumbini Nepal is best destination for us because, God Pashupatinath, many Hindus temples, religions and cultures are attraction for us so, once a year we visit Nepal. A large number of Indian tourists in Kathmandu, and Janakpur The Mountains, landscape, and silence natural heritages are the god gifted monuments of Nepal, I love it and thats why I am here. A German scientist in Chitwan Therefore, according to empirical data, Nepal is the best destination for adventure activities like mountaineering, trekking, natural heritages and many more. Similarly, having majority of Hindus people and its related culture, tradition, temple and more phenomenon, and being the birth of God Buddha, Nepal is significance destination for cultural tourism too. 10.1.2. Major touristic destinations in Nepal Roof of the world, home of the Gurkhas, land of legend and beauty: within its narrow confines, Nepal contains as amazing range of culture and physical environments offers the visitor and abundance of contrasts and the experiences. A unique landscape unequalled in beauty and variety, cultural diversity, aesthetically built monuments, rugged beauty and tranquility of snowcapped shimmering mountains, serenity and placidness of the lakes and valleys, an unmatched collection of flora, fauna and wild life, diverse races, ethnic groups, dialects and languages all combine to make Nepal a visitors dream come true. Formally, It is also known as the Himalayas kingdom, possessing 8 of 10 heights mountain of the world, unique combination of Buddhism and Hinduism and its phenomenon are always attraction for tourists. Some of the major tourist destinations in Nepal are mountain regions; include the beautiful cities of Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, Patan, Pokhara and other sites. The places in Nepal are known for their various historic sites and sightseeing. Tourists must visit the Royal Chitwan National Park, Nagarjuna Forest Reserve, Pashupatinath, Dakhshina Kali and many more. Ashok Vyas (2004) Nepal Darshan, indicated, the main touristic areas of Nepal are mountain regions, particular khumbu and Annapuran followed by, Pokhara, Lumbini, Kathmandu Valley, Chitwan and Janakpur. Again, small amount of tourist were interested to visit different parts of the Country. On the basis on empirical data, the researcher came to know that, tourists indicated different destinations according to their interest. Western tourists were interested to visit mountain regions but Asians were interested to visit cultural sites. In general, Majority (80 out of 100 respondents), were interested to visit mountain areas like Khumbu and Annapurna and they were involved in adventure activities like mountaineering, trekking and rock climbing etc. In addition, 61 out of 100 tourists were interested to visit religious and cultural heritages like Lumbini, Kathmandu Valley and Janakpur. Similarly, 48 out of 100 respondents were interested to visit natural heritages; Chitwan and the Mt. Everest. However, both of them were interested (88 out of 100) to visit lovely city Pokhara. Figure 5.12 Fig. 5.12, major touristic areas of Nepal visited by tourists Source: Field Study Mountain Area= Khumbu and Annapurna Region, Pokhara= Holiday, recreation and adventure Cultural Sites= Kathmandu valley+ Lumbini+ Janakpur Natural Heritages= Chitwan and the Mt. Everest With the help of above empirical data, the researcher agreed on Nepal has been a best destination for adventure tourists. Similarly, pilgrimage (Cultural phenomenon) has been introducing a new kind of tourism destination in Nepal. Lumbini, the birthplace of Buddha, could be an important destination for Buddhist people. Besides there is a famous shrine of Lord Pashupatinath at the Kathmandu and many other Hindus monuments all over the country could be the attraction point for huge Indians. 10.1.3. Nepal, an economical (cheaper) destination Nepal is the poorest and least developed countries in the world. More than 45 Per Cent of people are under the poverty line. Agriculture is the pillar of the economy, providing a livelihood for majority of the population and accounting for 38% of GDP. The unemployment rate of country is more than 45 Per Cent in the year of 2008. The per capita income of the county by the year 2008 was $473. Asian Development Bank, 2008. The current situation of foreign exchange rate against euro is more than 100 Rupees. Moscow, the capital city of Russia, is the most expensive city for travelers, followed by Tokyo, Japan. There is not any city or place from South Asians countries, which is expensive for tourist (Source; www.travelersdigest.com, 2009-7-20). Nepal could be one of the cheap destinations for tourists, Upadhyay, Rudra (2006). On my personal experiences, Nepal is cheaper destination, because now I am in Namche Bazaar, 3,440 m, local residents said that this is an expensive place for tourist. However, I do not feel so; I am paying $ 20 for a hotel per day, 5 to 20 Dollars for food, which is normal for me. If I were in Switzerland, I have to pay huge amount of money. Tourist in Namche Bazaar, Khumbu Region Within few moments, I will be in the sky by Paraglide, I paid around 100 euro. But, in Switzerland I have to pay five to seven times more for same thing. A German tourist, in Sharankot, Pokhara When I was applying visa for Bhutan, I proved that I can spend more than 200 US Dollars a day; this is rule of Bhutan government. But, look in Nepal no condition like this. Again; I am spending less than 50 Dollars a day, which is enough for me. A tourist in Pokhara Similarly, the researcher collected data from tourist on Nepal visit and tourists budget. Majority of respondents (54 Per Cent) were reported, Nepal is cheaper destination followed by, 30 Per Cent; middle and rest 16 Per Cent reported expensive. Figure 5.14; Figure 5.14, Nepal visit and tourists budget. Source: field study Therefore, on the basis on empirical data, the researcher found that, Nepal is the cheaper destination for tourists. During the field study, the researcher asked to the tourists, what amount of money are you planning to spend in Nepal. Majority of respondents ( 38 Per Cent) were reported up to 2000 US dollars, followed by 35 Per Cent; 2000 to 3000and rest 27 Per Cent more than 3000 US dollar, Table 5.13. Table 5.14, Amount of money tourist wants to spend in Nepal Source; Field study Average length of stay of tourist is if on higher side they will spend more money. Thus, more money brought by international tourist would be pumped in the local economy. The average length of stay by a tourist during 1975-90 had been 11.87 days that declined marginally to 11.23 days in the following period of 1991 -2000 and around 12 days in 2008 and 2009  [6]  . However, during the data collection the researcher found variety of data. Fig. 5.13, Average length of stay Source: Field study In average, tourists were interested to stay in Nepal around 20 days. Based on the answers given by local people and tourist, it was found that majority of respondents 84 % (210 out of 250) reported that average length of stay of tourist in tourist areas was 20 days (Fig. 5.13). XI CHAPTER SUMMARY OF FINDINGS AND RECOMMEDATION Title: Page No. Overall review of the research 214 Summary of the findings 215 Recommendations 218 11.1. Overall review of the research Chapter 6 provides an overall review of the research aim, objectives, research questions, issues, findings, conclusions and recommendations of this study. Chapter 6 begins by summarizing the background to the research, and the research purpose, methodology and findings. The researcher goes on to make explicit the contribution of this study to the discipline of Socio-cultural and economic impact of tourism in the process of globalization in Nepal. Suggestions are made for future research based on the theme of this study. The chapter concludes with key recommendations for Socio-cultural and economic impact of tourism in the process of globalization in Nepal The present researcher has attempted to fine out, Socio-cultural and economic impact of tourism in the process of globalization in Nepal. It is divided in five major topics with subareas. The first topic is introduction. This chapter has included the introduction, theoretical concerns, hypothesis, aims and objectives, statements (importance), research methodology, and data sources and data analysis model of present research. The key aspect of this chapter is research issues. This research has three major issues: change in socio-economic setup of Nepal due to globalization and tourism; cultural globalization due to inflict of tourism but also due to globalization in general, and perception of Nepal by tourists. Under the first issue: socio-economic inequality, impact of tourism on Nepalese economy, development and change in touristic areas were the major points for analysis. Similarly in second; impact of global tourism on food, drinks, clothing, languages, family structure and everyday life; tourism and socio-cultural change in Nepal; types of globalization and homogenization adapting by Nepalese by tourist or tourism were major points. The last or final issue of this research was; important and interesting fact of Nepalese tourism for tourist was main phenomenon. Research methodology is another important subarea of this research. The nature of this research is qualitative cum quantitative (mixed approach). The study areas of this research were major six touristic places of Nepal Mt. Everest National Park (Sagarmatha), Pokhara with Annapurna area, Lumbini (The birthplace of Lord Buddha), Chitwan National Park, Janakpur and Kathmandu Valley including Lalitpur and Bhaktapur. The total numbers of interlocutors of this research were 250 including local people (40 Per Cent), Tourist (40 Per Cent) and jobholder in tourism (20 Per Cent). Questionnaires, interviews, observation, case study and discussion were used for data collection on August to December 2008 and October 2009 to January 2010. The data analysis has been performed by using computer software like Excel, SPSS one way ANOVA and T-Test according to their necessity. Chapter Two is the collection of theoretical literature review. This chapter has explained the all-important terms and variables of this research. Similarly, chapter Three is the detail explanation of culture, people, land and society of country of the great Himalayas (Nepal). Chapter Four covers complete data analysis of this research. This covers general demographic (Age, Gender and Education) information of the respondents: tourism, globalization and its impact on Nepali economy, society and culture with different subareas and perception of Nepal by tourist. Similarly, Chapter 5 includes the summary of findings and suggestions and end part includes references. In conclusion, tourism is not a new phenomenon in Nepal. The county has welcomed tourists officially since 1953. Tourism has been a significant pillar in the countrys economy and the government using for socio-economic development of rural areas in Nepal. It was the aim of this study to address the important issues related to tourism and impacts in Nepal. The focal point, how residents evaluate the economic, social and cultural impacts of tourism on their community was examined. The final section dealt with the perception of Nepal by tourists. 11.2. Summary of the findings Tourism is an important process of socio-economic and cultural globalization. It has both positive and negative impacts on society, economy and culture of destination. The truth is that tourism has become one of the largest and most rapidly growing industries in the world by combining social and economic activities. The industry fosters development and affects the people and the place. Impacts of tourism could be positive or negative according to the degree of planning and the level of involvement of local residents in the development process. The outcome is dependent on the relationship between the local residents and the site. On the basis on data, it has both positive and negative impacts according to places regards to the impact of global tourism. The people are in Khumbu, Annapurana, Chitwan, Jankapur and Lumbini believe that tourism does not contradict religion or traditional customs; they are of the opinion that it has no influences on their daily life or their patterns of consumption. However, the people from Kathmandu and Pokhara Valley are strongly addressed there is huge impact of tourism and tourists activities on local culture, society, traditions, food, languages and everyday life. However, in general all respondents fell that it could influences in food, language, clothes and younger generations more. Finally, residents believe that tourism could be a solution for unemployment, poverty, income, and socio-cultural changes. It was found that tourism plays the important role in the Nepalese economy. Tourism has playing quantifiable and positive effects on the development of GDP of the country. It has been increasing the economy of the country in general and as a whole. The increase in the volume of tourist flow has direct as well as indirect impact on the development process of Nepal. Nevertheless, tourism was found to be more capital investor and employer in Nepal In general, tourism has both positive and negative impacts, but majority of residents have a positive attitude toward tourism and they believe that it can develop their communities, like main source of income, job, poverty alleviation, source of foreign reserves and revenue, and national and local business. People involved in this profession have found better life compare to others. They have better opportunity of employment, income, education, quality of life and many more. However, the largest economic impacts of tourism are experienced by the residents near the Khumbu, Annapurna, Pokhara, Lumbini, Chitwan, Janakpur and some part of Kathmandu Valley, while people living in remote areas and in off-site of tourist areas or routes could not reap the benefits of tourism as they have very limited things to offer. Thus, this is clear, tourism increasing socio-economic inequality among the Nepalese. A side effect of residents expecting profits is that locals evaluate tourists according to their expenditures, potentially leading to negative attitudes and conflicts between residents and tourists and between the various social groups living within the local community. In addition, while tourism has the potential to introduce economic benefits for the government and the people. Normally tourism still has little impact on local society and culture. Participants report that tourism has less contradicted religion and traditions, while some of them expressed the fear of potential impact on younger generations. Such sentiments were centered near Khumbu and Annapurna, where the impact on society and culture are more present than in the other sites. Among the negative impacts reported in study, areas are; the consumption of alcohol, the imitation of tourist behaviour and sexual relations with tourists, increasing foreign food, dress, drug, language, gambling and unwanted lifestyle change. The positive impacts of tourism were especially highlighted by those working in tourism. Some reported that tourism is single source of their economic life, while others claim to have learned positive skills from tourists that improve their interaction with family members and in society. Similarly, for the Government tourism is an important pillar of national economy and best way to reduce poverty in rural areas of Nepal. Finally, tourism is an important transmitter of globalization in Nepal. It seems a process of acculturation or westernization or Americanization and leads globalised homogenous society and culture. Majority of respondents agreed on tourism and globalization develops globalized homogeneous culture but the same time Nepalese cultures are reconstructed on local levels. Tourists were found highly satisfied with weather, natural scenery, wild animals, peoples behavior, hospitality, friendliness, helpfulness humbleness, honest, welcoming attitude of the people, sense of remoteness and authenticity, religious customs, fulfillment of scene of adventure, historical sites, culture, entertainment, language communication, agency services and guide services. However, they were found to be less satisfied with immigration, transportation, airlines services, lodging, sightseeing tour, shopping facilities, tourist information service, regular strike (Nepal banda), tax, and food and drinks in Nepal. Again, they had realized the potential for further tourism development in Nepal. Having top mountains of the World, colorful cultures, ancient history and people, picturesque scenery, birthplace of Gautam Buddha, rich traditions of art, culture and heritage and one of the best destination for adventure activities; the country of great Himalayas (Nepal) is one of the best destination for tourism. The perceptions of tourist are found positive. Out of different attraction phenomenon, adventure activities and places are the main attraction for tourists followed by religion and culture. Majority of tourist are agreed on Nepal is the cheapest destination. Recommendations There is no doubt tourism is a means of globalization and have impact on society, culture and economy of the country. Tourism is the main way of globalization in different phenomenon like economy, culture and society of Nepal. Nepalese society, culture and economy have been suffering from various impact of tourism. Basis on the empirical data, the researcher have found following suggestions on this research. Tourism is an important process of socio-economic and cultural globalization. It has both positive and negative impacts on society, economy and culture of destination. Therefore, it is recommended that Nepalese should be aware from such impact. Tourism is seen as the means of development in rural areas of Nepal. Therefore, government and local people should use tourism as the development tools for rural Nepal. It is found that tourism has both positive and negative impacts on society and culture according to places. Some tourist areas have less impact and some have more. Therefore, Nepalese and government should implement proper programme to reduce negative impacts. The impact of tourism on the social system and culture of locals are diversity according to tourist hubs. Participants from Kathmandu, Pokhara and Chitwan reported that tourism contradict religion, tradition, social norms, local culture, society, food, language, clothes and may more related to social and culture phenomenon, while others from rest tourist hubs reported tourism does not contradict religion and tradition. But, from both places people, express the fear of the greater impact on the younger generation. Therefore, to protect from such evidence, it is necessary to give proper education or information to the Nepalese and special education or information to the younger generation. Majority of respondents have positive attitude of tourism and believe that it can develop their communities. Tourism is pillar, employer, poverty eliminator, source of foreign currencies, revenue, local business and capital investor of Nepalese economy but government is not giving proper importance in it. It is recommended that government should give priority for tourism development. Regarding to the role of tourism in globalization of economy Nepal has been found that the direct impact of tourism on earning foreign exchange has been improving. However, if it is analyzed with respect to merchandize trade, overall foreign exchange earnings in the economy the role of tourism has been increasing. The ratio of foreign exchange earnings from tourism and GDP has been increasing very slowly. Nepalese and government of Nepal should think on it. The foreign participation in the tourism industry remains confined to mainly hotel, resorts and restaurants. Therefore, government and people should encourage foreign investors to invest in new areas of activities related to tourism in Nepal. The residents near the tourist hubs of Nepal experience the largest economic impacts of tourism, where a large number of residents have become dependent on tourism, while in the other sites tourism still has no significant economic meaning. Therefore, in this situation economic benefit of tourism should be managed to the equal manner It is found that people in tourism have better living standard because they have better income. Only few Nepalese are involved in tourism therefore they are getting better quality of life and education but majority of Nepalese are in off-site, which is socio-economic inequality due to tourism. To promote the living standard of those people, who are off-site, government and Nepalese should focus balanced tourism development project and distribute appropriate income of tourism. Regarding employment in tourism, it was also found that tourism is not yet considered a plausible and appropriate employment opportunity by local jobseekers. Among the reasons are lacks of education and training centers, low wages paid to employees in tourism service, lack of insurance and job security, to a certain degree, the traditional and social values of the communities. Concerning education and training, the study identified that the authorities do not consider tourism to be a helpful means in dealing with the issues of human resources. This reflects the low priority given to education and training in tourism as an independent field of study, even when there is a project with a scheduled budget for training. Therefore, it is necessary to create positive attitudes towards tourism related job for this educational institution should be established. Total foreign exchange earnings of Nepal have been growing after introduction of tourism. Foreign investment has been increasing in tourism because it will be potential sources of return for them. However, this analysis shows that foreign investors were keen to invest in hotels, resorts and restaurants. Other activities could not attract foreign investors. Here lies the need to promote other activities rela

Ancient Kemet :: World History

Ancient Kemet Egypt was without question the first great civilization in Africa. Surrounded by the hostile desert, Egypt arose as a populous settlement as a "gift of the Nile River," which flooded surrounding plains and thus supported game and wild plants. Straddling the strategic land crossroads between Africa, Asia, and Europe, Egypt also became a point for interchange between the Mediterranean and Red seas and the Persian Gulf. Many developments affecting the rest of Africa took place in or near the Nile Valley, such as the cultivation of plants and the development of metal smelting. Thus, Egypt's major role in forming early African civilizations has been well established. In modern times, scholars often underestimated the contributions of ancient Egypt to European civilization. More than two millennia ago, when the Ptolemaic Greeks came to rule Egypt, they extensively adopted and interpreted Egyptian spiritual, material, political, aesthetic, and intellectual systems. Although later Greek authorities freely acknowledged their cultural debt to Egypt, during the nineteenth century many European writers, limited by their ethnocentrism and racism, decided that black Africa could have had nothing to do with Europe's rise to greatness. Some treated Egypt as Middle Eastern and divorced it from the rest of Africa, whereas others went further, asserting the preeminence of northern Aryan sources of Greek civilization to the virtual exclusion of Semitic, African, and Egyptian influences. Beginning in ancient times, Egypt was a genuine crossroads of peoples and cultures, and its peoples were multiethnic and multiracial, as depicted in dynastic drawings of their rulers. They came from as far way as Asia Minor and Nubia, in the upper Nile Valley. Ancient Kemet :: World History Ancient Kemet Egypt was without question the first great civilization in Africa. Surrounded by the hostile desert, Egypt arose as a populous settlement as a "gift of the Nile River," which flooded surrounding plains and thus supported game and wild plants. Straddling the strategic land crossroads between Africa, Asia, and Europe, Egypt also became a point for interchange between the Mediterranean and Red seas and the Persian Gulf. Many developments affecting the rest of Africa took place in or near the Nile Valley, such as the cultivation of plants and the development of metal smelting. Thus, Egypt's major role in forming early African civilizations has been well established. In modern times, scholars often underestimated the contributions of ancient Egypt to European civilization. More than two millennia ago, when the Ptolemaic Greeks came to rule Egypt, they extensively adopted and interpreted Egyptian spiritual, material, political, aesthetic, and intellectual systems. Although later Greek authorities freely acknowledged their cultural debt to Egypt, during the nineteenth century many European writers, limited by their ethnocentrism and racism, decided that black Africa could have had nothing to do with Europe's rise to greatness. Some treated Egypt as Middle Eastern and divorced it from the rest of Africa, whereas others went further, asserting the preeminence of northern Aryan sources of Greek civilization to the virtual exclusion of Semitic, African, and Egyptian influences. Beginning in ancient times, Egypt was a genuine crossroads of peoples and cultures, and its peoples were multiethnic and multiracial, as depicted in dynastic drawings of their rulers. They came from as far way as Asia Minor and Nubia, in the upper Nile Valley.

Demand Forecasting and Production Planning

ScienceAsia 27 (2001) : 271-278 Demand Forecasting and Production Planning for Highly Seasonal Demand Situations: Case Study of a Pressure Container Factory Pisal Yenradeea,*, Anulark Pinnoib and Amnaj Charoenthavornyingb a Industrial Engineering Program, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Patumtani 12121, Thailand. b Industrial Systems Engineering Program, School of Advanced Technologies, Asian Institute of Technology, P. O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Patumtani 12120, Thailand. * Corresponding author, E-mail: [email  protected] tu. ac. th Received 24 May 2001 Accepted 27 Jul 2001 ABSTRACT This paper addresses demand forecasting and production planning for a pressure container factory in Thailand, where the demand patterns of individual product groups are highly seasonal. Three forecasting models, namely, Winter’s, decomposition, and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), are applied to forecast the product demands. The results are compared with those obtained by subjective and intuitive judgements (which is the current practice). It is found that the decomposition and ARIMA models provide lower forecast errors in all product groups. As a result, the safety stock calculated based on the errors of these two models is considerably less than that of the current practice. The forecasted demand and safety stock are subsequently used as inputs to determine the production plan that minimizes the total overtime and inventory holding costs based on a fixed workforce level and an available overtime. The production planning problem is formulated as a linear programming model whose decision variables include production quantities, inventory levels, and overtime requirements. The results reveal that the total costs could be reduced by 13. % when appropriate forecasting models are applied in place of the current practice. KEYWORDS: demand forecasting, highly seasonal demand, ARIMA method, production planning, linear programming, pressure container factory. INTRODUCTION Most manufacturing companies in developing countries determine product demand forecasts and production plans using subjective and intuitive judgments. This may be one factor that leads to production inefficiency. An accuracy of the demand forecast significantly affects safety stock and inventory levels, inventory holding costs, and customer service levels. When the demand is highly seasonal, it is unlikely that an accurate forecast can be obtained without the use of an appropriate forecasting model. The demand forecast is one among several critical inputs of a production planning process. When the forecast is inaccurate, the obtained production plan will be unreliable, and may result in over- or understock problems. To avoid them, a suitable amount of safety stock must be provided, which requires additional investment in inventory and results in an increased inventory holding costs. In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, systematic demand forecasting and production planning methods are proposed in this paper. A case study of a pressure container factory in Thailand is presented to demonstrate how the methods can be developed and implemented. This study illustrates that an improvement of demand forecasts and a reduction of total production costs can be achieved when the systematic demand forecasting and production planning methods are applied. The demand forecasting and production planning methods are proposed in the next section. The background of the case study, including, products, production process, and the forecasting and production planning procedures being used in the factory, are briefly described in Section 3. The detailed analyses of the forecasting methods and the production planning method are explained in Section 4 and Section 5, respectively. Finally, the discussion and conclusion are presented in Section 6. 272 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) P ROPOSED D EMAND F ORECASTING PRODUCTION PLANNING METHODS AND The proposed demand forecasting and production planning methods are depicted in a step-by-step fashion in Fig. . Most factories produce a variety of products that can be categorized into product groups or families. Individual products in the same product group generally have some common characteristics. For example, they may have the same demand pattern and a relatively stable product mix. As a result, it is possible to forecast the aggregate demand of the product group first, and then disaggregate it in to the demand of individual products. Since the forecast of the aggregate demand is more accurate than that of the individual demand1, it is initially determined in Step 1. Then the demands of individual products are determined in Step 2 by multiplying the aggregate demand with the corresponding product mix that is normally known and quite constant. Since the demand forecasts are always subject to forecast errors, safety stocks are provided to avoid stock-out problems. Based on the standard deviation of the forecast errors and the required service level, the safety stocks for individual products are determined in Step 3. Production planning decisions are so complicated and important that they should not be subjectively and intuitively made. Consequently, an appropriate production planning model should be formulated to determine the optimal decisions. With this model, its parameters, eg, demand forecasts, safety stocks, holding cost, overtime cost, machine capacity, inventory capacity, and available regular time and overtime, are entered or updated (Step 4). In step 5, the optimal decisions regarding the production quantities, inventory levels, and regular production time and overtime for each product in each production stage are obtained by solving the production planning model. Step 6 indicates that only the optimal production plan of the current month will be implemented. After one month has elapsed, the demand forecasts and the production plan will be revised (by repeating Steps 1 to 5) according to a rolling horizon concept. BACKGROUND OF THE CASE STUDY The pressure container factory manufactures 15 products, ranging from 1. 25 to 50 kg of the capacity of pressurized gas. The products are divided into eight product groups, namely, Group 1 to Group 8. The first six groups have only two components, â€Å"head† and â€Å"bottom†, while the last two groups have three components, â€Å"head†, â€Å"bottom†, and â€Å"body†. The production process can be divided into five stages as shown in Fig. 2. Stage 3 is only required to produce the products having three components (ie, those in Groups 7 and 8). Stage 4, the circumference welding, is found to be a bottleneck stage due to its long processing time. Presently monthly demand forecasts are subjectively determined by the Marketing Department based on past sales and expected future market conditions. No systematic method is used in forecasting. Using these forecasts and other constraints, such as availability of raw materials, equipment, and production capacity, the monthly production plan for a three-month period is intuitively determined without considering any cost factor. This results in inaccurate demand forecasts and, subsequently, an inefficient production plan. Stage 1 Blanking 1) Forecast the monthly demands of each product group throughout the planning horizon of 12 months 2) Determine the demand for each individual product 3) Determine the safety stock for each individual product Stage 2 Forming of bottom and head Stage 3 Forming of body 4) Update the parameters in the production planning model Stage 4 Circumference welding 5) Run the planning model to obtain the optimal planning dicisions ) Roll the plan by repeating Steps 1 to 5 after one month has elapsed Stage 5 Finishing Fig 1. Proposed forecasting and planning steps. Fig 2. The production process to manufacture a pressure container. ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 273 FORECASTING METHODS Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the proposed forecasting and planning process are discussed in detail in this section. Firstly, the aggregate demand forecasts of eight product groups throughout the planning horizon of 12 mont hs will be determined. Secondly, the demand forecasts of the product groups will be disaggregated into those of individual product. Thirdly, the safety stocks of individual product will be calculated based on the forecast error. Aggregate Demand Forecasts of Product Groups The typical demand pattern of each product group is seasonal. As an example, Fig. 3 shows the demand pattern of Product Group 3. Thus, three forecasting models that are suitable for making seasonal demand forecasts are considered. They are Winter’s, decomposition and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. 2-5 Because of their simplicity, the Winter’s and decomposition models are initially used to forecast the aggregate demand of each product group. If the Winter’s and decomposition models are inadequate (ie, the forecast errors are not random), the ARIMA model which is more complicated and perhaps more efficient will be applied. The Winter’s model has three smoothing parameters that significantly affect the accuracy of the forecasts. These parameters are varied at many levels using a computer program to determine a set of parameters that give the least forecast errors. There are two types of the decomposition model, namely, multiplicative and additive types. The former is selected since the demand pattern shows that the trend and seasonal components are dependent. The forecast errors of the Winter’s and decomposition models are presented in Table 1. Based on the calculated mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), it is seen that the decomposition model has lower Original Series (x 1000) 16 forecast errors in all product groups than the Winter’s model. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the decomposition model provides better demand forecasts than the other. One way to check whether the forecasting model is adequate is to evaluate the randomness of the forecast errors. The auto-correlation coefficient functions (ACFs) of the errors from the decomposition model for several time lags at the significant level of 0. 05 of each product group are determined. The ACFs of Groups 1 and 3 are presented as examples in Fig. 4 and 5, respectively. The ACFs of Groups 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 are similar to those of Group 1 in Table 1. Forecast errors of the Winter’s and decomposition models. MSE Products MAPE (%) Winter’s Decomposition Winter’s Decomposition 9,879,330 4,363,290 2,227,592 4,507,990 10,039,690 574,108 636,755 883,811 36. 14 48. 94 24. 25 30. 08 18. 80 53. 86 61. 99 46. 52 26. 97 31. 86 15. 97 23. 4 13. 14 34. 80 34. 45 28. 76 Group 1 16,855,149 Group 2 8,485,892 Group 3 5,433,666 Group 4 6,035,466 Group 5 23,030,657 Group 6 1,690,763 Group 7 2,034,917 Group 8 1,884,353 Estimated Autocorrelations 1 0. 5 coefficient 0 -0. 5 -1 0 4 8 lag 12 16 20 Fig 4. ACFs of the residuals from the decomposition model for Group 1. Estimated Autocorrel ations 1 0. 5 16 demand 3 coefficient 0 8 -0. 5 4 -1 0 0 10 20 30 time index 40 50 60 0 4 8 lag 12 16 20 Fig 3. Actual demand of Group 3. Fig 5. ACFs of the residuals from the decomposition model for Group 3. 274 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Fig 4, while those of Groups 2 and 3 are similar. It can be seen from Fig. 4 that the ACFs of all lags are within the upper and lower limits, meaning that the errors are random. However, the ACF of lag 1 in Fig. 5 exceeds the upper limit. This indicates that auto-correlations do exist in the errors and that the errors are not random. From the ACFs, we can conclude that the decomposition model is adequate for forecasting the demands of Groups 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, but inadequate for forecasting those of Groups 2 and 3. Therefore, the ARIMA model is applied to Groups 2 and 3. From the original time series of the demand of Group 3 (in Fig. 3), and the ACFs of its original series (in Fig. ), it can be interpreted that the original series has a trend, and a high value of ACF of lag 12 indicates the existence of seasonality. 2 Hence, a non-seasonal first-difference to remove the trend and a seasonal first-difference to remove the strong seasonal spikes in the ACFs are tested. Fig. 7 shows the ACFs of the ARIMA (p,1,q)(P,1,Q) 12 model afte r applying the first difference. The nonseasonal plot indicates that there is an exponential decay and one significant ACF of lag 2. Thus, the AR(1) and MA(1) process denoted by ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,0)12 is identified. The ACFs of the residuals after applying this ARIMA model shown in Fig. reveals that there is a high value of ACF of lag 12. Therefore, the AR(1) and MA(1) process for the seasonal part or ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 can be identified. The ACFs of the residuals generated from this model are shown in Fig. 9. Since all ACFs are within the two significant limits, the ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model is adequate. Using the Statgraphic program, the model coefficients can be determined. The demand forecast for Group 3 is presented in Eq. 1. Ft = 1. 197 X t ? 1 ? 0. 197 X t ? 2 + 0. 54408 X t ? 12 ? 0. 65126 X t ? 13 + 0. 10718 X t ? 14 + 0. 45592 X t ? 24 ? 0. 54574 X t ? 25 + 0. 08982 X t ? 26 ? 1. 6699et ? 1 ? 0. 7154et ? 12 + 0. 76332et ? 13 + 29. 34781 (1) where Ft is the demand fo recast for period t Xt is the actual demand for period t et is the forecast error for period t Similarly, the forecasting model for Group 2 is ARIMA (3,0,0)(3,0,0). 12 The demand forecast of Group 2 is presented in Eq. 2. Estimated Autocorrelations for Original Series 1 Estimated Residual ACF 1 0. 5 0. 5 coefficient coefficient 0 0 -0. 5 -0. 5 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 Fig 6. ACFs of the actual demand for Group 3. Fig 8. ACFs of the residuals of ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,0)12 model for Group 3. Estimated Residual ACF 1 Estimated Autocorrelations for 1 Nonseasonal Differences 1 Seasonal Differences 1 0. 5 0. 5 coefficient coefficient 0 0 -0. 5 -0. 5 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 Fig 7. ACFs after first differencing for Group 3. Fig 9. ACFs of the residuals of ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model for Group 3. ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 275 Ft = 0. 36951X t? 1 + 0. 30695X t? 2 – 0. 18213X t? 3 + 0. 20132 X t? 12 ? 0. 07439 X t? 13 ? 0. 06180 X 14 + 0. 03667 X t? 15 ? 0. 03325X t? 24 + 0. 01228 X t? 25 + 0. 01021X t? 26 ? 0. 00606 X t? 27 + 0. 68660 X t? 36 ? 0. 25371X t? 37 ? 0. 21075X t? 38 + 0. 12505X t? 39 + 354. 4515 2) The forecast errors of the decomposition and ARIMA models for Groups 2 and 3 are presented in Table 2. It reveals that the ARIMA model has lower Table 2. Forecast errors of the decomposition and ARIMA models. MSE Products Group 2 Group 3 Decomposition ARIMA 4,363,290 2,227,592 3,112,974 1,235,788 MAPE (%) Decomposition ARIMA 31. 86 15. 97 29. 05 13. 18 MSE and MAPE than t he decomposition model. Therefore, the ARIMA model should be used to forecast the aggregate demands of Groups 2 and 3. For other product groups, however, the decomposition model should be used because it is more simple yet still adequate. The comparison of the demand forecast errors obtained from the forecasting models and those from the current practice of the marketing department (as presented in Table 3) indicates that the errors of the forecasting models are substantially lower than those of the current practice. Demand Forecasts of Individual Products The demand forecast of product i for period t, dit, is obtained by multiplying the aggregate demand forecast of the product group (obtained from the previous steps) by the corresponding product mix (as presented in Table 4). Table 3. Forecast errors of the current practice, decomposition, and ARIMA models. MSE Product Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Current practice Decomposition 16,672,342 4,394,693 4,988,962 4,754,572 19,787,102 795,621 849,420 1,060,301 9,879,330 4,507,990 10,039,690 574,108 636,755 883,811 ARIMA 3,112,974 1,235,788 MAPE (%) Current practice Decomposition 30. 58 34. 68 23. 50 25. 73 17. 54 42. 70 38. 36 37. 93 26. 97 23. 24 13. 14 34. 80 34. 45 28. 76 ARIMA 29. 05 13. 18 – Table 4. Product mix. Product group Product 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 0. 17 0. 20 0. 26 0. 23 0. 14 1. 0 0. 53 0. 47 0. 65 0. 35 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0. 3 0. 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 276 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Calculation of Safety Stock The safety stocks of finished products must be provided to protect against stock-out problems due to inaccurate demand forecasts. Based on the forecast errors obtained from the demand forecasting models, the amount of the safety stock is calculated using the following formula. 12 SSit = sf * ? j * ? ij (3) PRODUCTION PLANNING METHO D The production planning model is developed by initially defining decision variables and parameters, and then mathematically formulating the production planning model. Step 4 of the method requires that the model parameters be estimated and entered into the model. The model is solved for the optimal solution (Step 5). Step 6 recommends that the model parameters are updated, and the model is solved again after one planning period has passed. The production planning problem of the factory under consideration belongs to the class of multistage, multi-item, capacitated production planning model. The models in this class have been discussed extensively in. 6-11 They differ in assumptions, objectives, constraints, and solution methods. Our production planning model is a modification of the multi-stage, multi-product model discussed in Johnson and Montgomery. 6 Its objective is to minimize the total overtime and inventory holding costs. Costs of laying off and rehiring are not considered because laying off and rehiring are not allowed according to the labor union regulation. Since the production cost is time-invariant and all demands must be satisfied, the regular time production cost is thus not included in the objective function. Relevant parameters and decision variables are defined as follows: Parameters : hik = Holding cost per unit of product i at stage k (baht/unit/period) co = Cost per man-hour of overtime labor (baht/man-hour) dit = Demand forecast of product i for period t (units) aik = Processing time for one unit of product i at stage k (hours/unit) (rm)kt = Total available regular time excluding preventive maintenance and festival days at stage k for period t (man-hours) (om)kt = Total available overtime excluding preventive maintenance and festival days at stage k for period t (man-hours) W = Warehouse capacity (units) SSit = Safety stock of product i for period t (units) Iik0 = Initial inventory of product i at stage k (units) N = Total number of products (15 products) T = Total number of periods in the planning horizon (12 periods) K = Total number of stages (5 stages) where SSit = Required safety stock level of product i for period t sf = Safety factor = 1. 64 for a required service level of 95 % of the standard normal distribution ? j = Standard deviation of forecast errors of Group j. ?ij = Product mix of Product i in Group j. Since the errors of the recommended demand forecasting models are lower than those of the current practice, it is clear that SSit based on the use of the models must be lower than that determined from the current practice (assuming that the service levels of both cases are the same). Table 5 presents the required safety stocks of the current practice and the recommended forecasting models at 95 % service level. Table 5. Required safety stock of current practice and of recommended forecasting models. Safety stock (units) Product 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Current practice 1,138 1,339 1,741 1,540 937 3,438 1,941 1,722 2,324 1,252 7,295 1,463 1,511 507 1,182 Recommended forecasting models 887 1,043 1,356 1,200 730 2,905 979 868 2,274 1,224 5,258 1,245 1,323 460 1,072 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 277 Decision variables: Xikt = Quantity of product i to be produced at stage k in period t (units) Iikt = Inventory of product i at stage k at the end of period t (units) Rkt = Regular time used at stage k during period t (man-hours) Okt = Overtime used at stage k during period t (man-hours) LP model: Minimize Z = ? ? ? hik Iikt + ? ? co Okt , (4) i =1 k =1 t =1 k =1 t =1 N K T K T Eq. 7 represents the material balance constraint in Stage 3, which produces the body of threecomponent products, for Products 13, 14, and 15. Constraint (13) must be included since the finished products are very bulky and require significant warehouse space that is quite limited. Work-inprocess inventory does not require significant storage space because it can be stacked. The non-negativity constraint (16) ensures that shortages of work-inprocess inventory do not occur. Input Parameters The initial inventory of product i at stage k, Iik0, is collected from real data of work-in-process or finished good inventories on the factory floor at the beginning of the planning horizon. The inventory holding cost of product i at stage k, hik, is estimated by assuming that the annual inventory holding cost is 25% of the cost per unit of the product at the respective production stage. Since the cost per unit is constant over the planning horizon, the annual inventory holding cost is time-invariant. The factory has enough space in the warehouse to store not more than 40,000 units of finished products. The total available regular time, (rm)kt, is estimated based on the fact that the factory is normally operated 16 hours a day and six days a week, and the total available overtime, (om)kt, is calculated by assuming that the overtime could not be more than six hours a day. The overtime cost, co, is assumed to be constant throughout the planning horizon, and is estimated to be 60 Baht per man-hour. After all related parameters have been estimated and entered into the planning model, the optimal values of all decision variables are calculated using the LINGO software. The computation time takes less than one minute on a Pentium PC. Results of the Production Planning Models with Different Levels of Safety Stock In this section, two production planning models with different safety stock levels (as shown in Table 5) are solved to determine the total cost savings when the recommended forecasting models are applied in place of the current practice. The inventory holding, overtime, and total costs of both models are presented in Table 6. Based on the optimal total cost of the current practice (4,078,746 Baht per year) and the optimal total cost of the recommended forecasting models (3,541,772 Baht per year), the total cost saving is 536,974 Baht per year, or 13. 2 %. It can be also seen Subject to – Finished product requirement constraints I i 5,t? 1 + X i 5t ? I i 5t = dit – ? i, t ; k = 5, (5) Material balance between stages constraints ? i, t ; k = 4, (6) (7) ? i, t ; k = 2, (8) ? i, t ; k = 1, (9) I i 4 ,t? 1 + X i 4 t ? I i 4 t = X i 5t I i 3,t? 1 + X i 3t ? I i 3t = X i 4 t ?t ; i = 13, 14, 15; k = 3, I i 2,t? 1 + X i 2t ? I i 2t = X i 4 t I i1,t? 1 + X i1t ? I i1t = X i 2t Capacity constraints ? aik X ikt ? Rkt + Okt i= 1 N ?k , t , (10) – Available regular and overtime constraints. Rkt ? (rm) kt Okt ? ( om) kt ?k , t , ? k , t , (11) (12) – Inventory capacity of finished product constraints. ? I ikt ? W i= 1 N ?t ; k = 5, (13) – Safety stock of finished product constraints. I ikt ? SS it ?i, t ; k = 5, (14) – Non-negativity conditions X ikt ? 0 I ikt ? 0 ?i, k , t , ? i, t ; k = 1, 2, 3, 4 (15) (16) 278 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Table 6. Comparison of the optimal costs of production planning models. Optimal costs (Baht/year) Model based on the current practice Inventory holding cost Overtime cost Total cost 2,117,051 1,961,695 4,078,746 Model based on recommended forecasting models 1,775,552 1,766,220 3,541,772 REFERENCES 1. Nahmias S (1993) Production and Operations Analysis, 2nd ed, Irwin, New York. 2. Vandaele W (1983) Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, Academic Press, New York. 3. Winters PR (1960) Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. Management Science 6(4), 324-42. 4. Box GE and Jenkins GM (1970) Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco. 5. Makridakis S Wheelwright SC and McGee VE (1983) Forecasting Methods and Applications, 2nd ed, John Wiley & Sons, New York. 6. Johnson LA and Montgomery DC (1974) Operations Research in Production Planning, Scheduling, and Inventory Control, John Wiley & Sons, New York. 7. Bullington P McClain J and Thomas J (1983) Mathematical Programming Approaches to Capacity Constrained MRP Systems: Review, Formulation, and Problem Reduction. Management Science 29(10). 8. Gabbay H (1979) Multi-Stage Production Planning. Management Science 25(11), 1138-48. 9. Zahorik A Thomas J and Trigeiro W (1984) Network Programming Models for Production Scheduling in MultiStage, Multi-Item Capacitated Systems. Management Science 30(3), 308-25. 10. Lanzanuer V (1970) Production and Employment Scheduling in Multi-Stage Production Systems. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 17(2), 193-8. 11. Schwarz LB (ed) (1981) Multi-level Production and Inventory Control Systems: Theory and Practice, North-Holland, New York. 12. Tersine RJ (1994) Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, 4th ed, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. that the optimal inventory holding cost and overtime cost in the production planning model based on the recommended forecasting models are almost equal which indicates that the model can efficiently achieve a tradeoff between both costs. Normally, the optimal decisions in the first planning period will be implemented. After the first period has passed, the new forecasts will be determined, and the model parameters will be updated. The updated model is solved again to determine the optimal decisions in the current period. This is called a rolling horizon concept. However, the details and results of this step are not shown in this paper. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The ARIMA model provides more reliable demand forecasts but it is more complicated to apply than the decomposition model. Therefore the ARIMA model should be used only when the decomposition model is inadequate. When compared against those of the current practice of the company, the errors of our selected models are considerably lower. This situation can lead to substantial reductions in safety stocks. Consequently, the lower safety stocks result in decreased inventory holding and overtime costs. The results of the production planning model are of great value to the company since the model can determine the optimal overtime work, production quantities, and inventory levels that yield the optimal total overtime and holding costs. The production planning method is more suitable than the existing one that does not consider any cost factors. Moreover, it has been proven that an application of appropriate forecasting techniques can reduce total inventory holding and overtime costs significantly. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that an improvement in demand forecasting and production planning can be achieved by replacing subjective and intuitive judgments by the systematic methods.